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Other teams with “smart” layups-and-3s shot profiles this season include the Timberwolves (fourth in shot quality, 25th in shot success, per Second Spectrum) and Thunder (sixth vs. That’s a leaguewide conclusion-Houston and Brooklyn aren’t outliers, but rather the most extreme examples of a wider trend. Based on analysis of Cleaning the Glass data According to analysis of CtG data, the correlation this season is negative-0.02-meaning, essentially, no relationship at all. A correlation of 1.00 means a perfect relationship, a negative-1.00 means a perfect inverse relationship, and a 0.00 means no relationship at all. To understand it, know that correlations are measured on a scale from -1 to 1. The graph below shows the correlation between teams’ shot quality and eFG% over the years. Shot quality doesn’t matter anymore-and both team-building and on-court strategies might have to shift their focus as a result. But that relationship, which had declined each season for the past half-decade, is now gone-and may not be coming back. And yet, anyone paying attention to the standings would know that the opposite is the case: The 7-16 Rockets rank 22nd in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), while the 16-7 Nets rank sixth.įor a long time across the NBA, a team’s shot distribution could reasonably predict its offensive success: Take good shots, enjoy good results. In a league that has spent the past decade learning the mathematical advantage of a layups-and-3s offensive philosophy, every indication should be that Houston would be shooting more efficiently and thus playing better than Brooklyn. They rank 28th in rim rate and fifth in midrange rate their average shot quality ranks 27th per CtG, and 29th per Second Spectrum. Their average shot quality ranks first according to Cleaning the Glass, which looks at shot locations, and second according to Second Spectrum, which factors in other considerations like defender distance.Ĭonversely, the Brooklyn Nets have a terrible shot profile relative to the rest of the league. Compared to other teams, they take by far the most high-value shots at the rim and the fewest low-value shots from midrange. Continued abuse of our services will cause your IP address to be blocked indefinitely.The Houston Rockets boast one of the best shot profiles in the NBA.
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